Smart Choices Balance Climate Change, Renewables, and Energy Reliability
California energy policy is a complex interaction of economics, technological challenges, and environmental considerations, all of which must work together to create a reliable and cost-effective system for delivering energy to millions of homes and businesses across California. Those responsible for the energy grid must balance these considerations while accounting for a constant stream of electrons across the entire West—all of which is interconnected between and among the western states to form the Western Interconnection shown at right. Every electron produced in California—whether renewable, nuclear, natural gas, or otherwise—must be carefully integrated into a complex series of wires, switches, and transformers before flowing into your home or business. All these maneuvers come together to ensure you can turn on the lights when you hit a switch, but also that your toaster doesn’t burst into flames.
These issues came to the forefront in the summer of 2020, when record heat and changes in California’s energy mix resulted in rolling blackouts not seen in California since the energy crisis in 2000–2001. Energy rates resulting from these decisions affect every California consumer, whether directly through home energy bills or through increased prices of goods and services. Smart and planned integration of renewables into this precarious system of interconnected electrons must be evaluated carefully and not reduced to tag lines.
• Energy Grid Is Hybrid Federal and State System. All the electricity in the Western Interconnection is tied together and, by design, must operate at a constant frequency of 60 hertz (Hz). This complex series of interconnections is managed by a series of balancing authorities, the largest of which, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) is located in California and encompasses part of California and Nevada.
The legal authority to regulate the energy grid across the United States is split between the state and federal governments. The federal government, through the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) governs transmission of energy, as molecules of energy do not respect state boundaries and travel in interstate commerce, which the U.S. Constitution deems a federal issue. The states control decisions such as power plant siting, procurement, and in-state retail sales—the end use to homes and businesses. FERC retains governance over the CAISO and balancing authorities to the extent they transmit energy across power lines.
• Renewable Portfolio Standards and Integrated Resource Planning. While FERC governs transmission of energy, California retains jurisdiction to make decisions regarding wholly in-state production and retail sales of energy. California’s energy portfolio uses a mix of energy sources that allows use of California’s abundant natural resources when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining, but still allows for sufficient power to ensure that you can turn on your lights at night or charge your electric car when these natural resources are scarce.
To that end, natural gas, large hydroelectric plants, nuclear, and minor amounts of coal are still in the portfolio mix. The largest portion of renewables (approximately 70%) consists of solar. While solar is a vast resource during the daytime, it also can be an unpredictable and intermittent energy resource. In response to growing climate change concerns, California in 2022 adopted the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program, requiring first private utilities, and then public utilities, to procure a certain percentage (20% at the time) of “renewable” energy resources. Categories of resources that qualified as “renewable” initially included things like solar, wind, municipal waste combustion, and small, existing geothermal plants.
Over the last 17 years, the Legislature has fussed with the definition of renewable. In 2018, the Legislature passed SB 100 (de León; D-Los Angeles), which increased the goal from 60% to 100% by 2045. California’s utilities are currently on track to meet RPS requirements.
The Policy Concerns
• Peak Energy Usage Has Changed. As each new bill pushes the renewable energy threshold, regulators, utilities, and ratepayers alike have to decide how to meet and pay for demand to maintain the complex grid described above. At peak sunlight, California produces too much energy and must curtail (shut down) production at solar and wind facilities. At the same time, California must ramp up its production at peak energy usage.
Over the years, as a result of many factors, including electrification of buildings/cars and increases in population, California’s peak energy usage has shifted slightly later, after sunset. Therefore, solar cannot provide the power needed to meet peak demand. Fast-ramping, responsive resources must be available to meet this demand if Californians are going to continue to keep the not-so-proverbial lights on.
The CAISO maintains a real-time look at the sources of energy supply and current renewables at www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.aspx.
CAISO had predicted a significant shortfall in reliability capacity at peak usage (when solar cannot help) starting in the summer of 2021. Historically, natural gas has been used to handle the shortfall and keep the lights on, but these facilities have been closing in increasing numbers due to legislative and regulatory targets on fossil fuels.
• Rolling Blackouts in 2020. For the first time in 20 years, California experienced rolling blackouts at more than 400,000 homes and businesses as energy demand outpaced the state’s ability to generate power. The blackouts were the result of a combination of record-breaking heat waves, the change in peak usage noted above, a lack of ability to purchase power from outside the state due to increasing renewable mandates, and the lack of availability of fast-ramping power sources like natural gas.
According to filings, the CAISO had been predicting energy shortfalls like this for several years, resulting in an extension of some natural gas plants in summer 2020 to meet predicted shortfalls starting in the summer of 2021. Summer 2020 has made clear that these shortfalls are real. These short-term emergency issues should create urgency for the Legislature to engage in a longer-term policy discussion over renewable integration, the role of natural gas and other fast-ramping power, as well as renew the discussion around regionalization of California’s energy grid to more cost-effectively purchase and sell power between states.
• Storage Technology Must Grow to Keep Pace. Environmental groups have targeted natural gas plants in California, either by sponsoring legislation to ban all fossil fuel energy production, or banning new natural gas hookups in construction. Bills introduced each year attempt to ban natural gas power production outright, or limit new natural gas connections, increasing reliance on intermittent resources.
Still, natural gas remains the state’s go-to for reliability and peak usage because natural gas is cleaner burning than coal and is “fast-ramping,” meaning that electricity monitors can easily turn up or turn down the volume as needed when renewables are not available to meet demand. Reliability depends upon flexible resources that can be summoned on demand.
Much interest surrounds development of storage solutions, with studies to evaluate batteries, pumped hydro or kinetic storage (where water or heavy objects are hoisted up a hill using cheap and abundant solar electricity during the day until peak demand, where gravity is holstered to create energy when the water or objects are allowed to move back downhill), conversion of hydrogen to natural gas, and other technology.
Battery technology is becoming more cost-effective, but still makes up less than 1% of renewables in California. What happens if we rely primarily on solar and batteries as backup, but the sun doesn’t shine for several days in a row, or wildfire smoke covers solar panels?
California does not yet have energy storage at anything approaching the scale necessary to meet peak energy demand and still needs natural gas to keep the lights on. Even if planned energy storage projects are pursued, they take years to obtain proper permits, build and become operational. Relying too heavily on one technology over another caused this reliability shortfall. California must take actions that encourage, not discourage, public and private investment in new and varied solutions. We must make thoughtful choices to avoid blackouts to address reliability shortfalls predicted through the next few years.
• Rates Are High and Increasing. Every energy policy decision the state and federal governments make has a direct impact on California ratepayers. Utility companies must comply with these mandates, and these costs are passed along to California ratepayers by the California Public Utilities Commission. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, which conducts independent analysis of energy data, notes that California has the nation’s sixth highest retail price of electricity in the residential sector, with an average retail price of 18 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh), compared with 11.1 cents per kWh nationally.
In debating sound energy laws, policymakers throw around different statistics on California energy rates. For instance, it often is touted that Californians use less in terms of kWh than residents in many states, which is true largely because of our mild climate, longtime energy efficiency standards, the shift toward electrification and end-user conservation efforts. However, California per kWh rates remain among the highest in the nation—even in states that similarly use little to no coal.
Legislative Action in 2022
Utilities now are required to obtain 100% of energy from renewable sources by 2045. A 100% goal increases the challenges to integrate existing and future renewables into the energy grid, rapidly develop storage technology, and avoid crises during events that prevent wind and solar from working at full capacity. This issue was made all the mroe relevant by a changing workforce working from home, shifts in peak energy usage, and California ordering a Stage 2 power grid emergency in July 2021 — one step away from rolling blackouts — as heat waves drove temperatures into triple digits and sent electricity demand soaring.
The California Public Utilities Commission ordered additional procurement and extended the life of some natural gas plants in order to meet short-term reliability needs and keep the lights on. These last-minute procurement decisions, however, all come at a steep cost to California’s ratepayers. Better planning is necessary to avoid issues like this in the future.
The California Chamber of Commerce expects legislation may include:
• Issues surrounding reliability procurement, including ensuring the availability of fast-ramping resources like natural gas and storage;
• A discussion about how to deal with renewable goals as traditional utilities continue to change in California.
Legislators also may continue to push the boundary on 24/7 emissions reductions — an issue that cannot be resolved separately and apart from ensuring continued reliability of the grid.
Legislation that continues to push the renewable threshold without consideration of grid capacity, pricing, or energy stability misses the whole picture. The CalChamber supports legislative and regulatory solutions that bring new businesses to California and help employers and the state reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the most cost-effective, technologically feasible manner while allowing flexibility to ensure a stable energy future. California cannot achieve its stated goals as a leader on climate change if it cannot demonstrate a sustainable balance between renewable integration, grid reliability, and cost containment.
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Executive Vice President and Chief of Staff for Policy