Special Report: Economic Advisory Council Quarterly Forecast
(May 2019) The stock market sell-off that began at the end of 2018, combined with certain weaker-than-normal economic data, has caused the usual set of perma-bearsto predict, yet again, the end of the current U.S. economic expansion.
Beacon Economics is not inclined to agree. We simply do not see imbalances that could cause the kinds of rapid shifts in the economy that would precipitate a recession.
(March 2019) Looking back, 2018 was clearly a solid year for the U.S. economy, with vastly more positives than negatives to reflect on. The nation’s economy grew by 2.9% in real terms over the year. Acceleration in growth occurred almost across the board, but the greatest contributions came from government and business investment. Exports had a good year despite ongoing trade disputes with key partners.
(December 2018) The 2018 midterm election is finally behind us, and proved to be just as dramatic as would befit today’s hypercharged political environment. Moreover, the final results pretty much assure that the drama coming out of Washington, D.C. will not lessen over the next two years of the Trump administration.
Indeed, without even taking a breath, it feels as if we are already in the run up to 2020. Will the Democratic takeover continue? Will the Republicans be able to hold the Senate and/or the Presidency? Report PDF
(September 2018) Far from losing steam, the U.S. economy has been on a solid upswing lately. But as always, a deeper look at the data suggests that there are issues to keep an eye on, according to a recent report by the California Chamber of Commerce Economic Advisory Council.
The United States is currently in the midst of the second longest expansion in the nation’s history at 111 months and counting. In July of next year, we will officially be in the midst of the longest expansion on record. Report PDF
(June 2018) The U.S. economy has experienced steady growth in recent years, and later this year, the current economic expansion will become the second longest on record. Throughout much of this expansion, California has outpaced the nation and many states in terms of economic growth and job gains, and improvements in its unemployment rate, fueled by strength in many of its key industries.
California will continue to lead the United States in 2018, making this year an opportune time to take on both current and long-term challenges. Report PDF
(March 2018) Growth came in at 3% for the second quarter of the year (the best since the first quarter of 2015), making up for a relatively weak first quarter, and the outlook for the rest of the year remains in the 2.5% range.
The state’s unemployment rate is on track to finish 2017 below 5% for the first time in 11 years. California’s unemployment rate is higher than the U.S. rate, but the differential between the two is now at its lowest in more than 10 years. Report PDF
(December 2017) An array of evidence points to the fact that the California economy has been humming along nicely, and that is expected to continue in the coming year, although the state must face long-term challenges, and the sooner the better, according to a recent report by the California Chamber of Commerce Economic Advisory Council..
Overall, Beacon Economics expects the U.S. economy to grow faster in 2017 than during the last two years. And the outlook for 2018 looks remarkably similar, short of some major change in government policy. Report PDF
(September 2017) Like the U.S., California’s economy continued to roll forward in the first part of 2017. The unemployment rate edged down, nonfarm jobs maintained an upward trajectory and grew at a modest pace, and economic activity in the state advanced at a somewhat faster rate than the nation as a whole. Report PDF
(June 2017)The California economy remains on track despite the uncertainty created by the disruptive political environment that has characterized the early months of the Trump administration, according to a recent report by the California Chamber of Commerce Economic Advisory Council.
With the midpoint of the year fast approaching, two distinctly opposing trends have formed in terms of the U.S. economy’s outlook for the year. On one hand, the nation’s economy is clearly picking up momentum after a year of slow growth in 2016. On the other hand, the policy uncertainties created by the Trump administration have only become worse as it moves into its fifth month. Report PDF
(March 2017) The political-economic environment went from unsettling in the aftermath of the November election to disruptive when President Donald Trump assumed the Oval Office, as the new president moved with lightning speed to sign a string of executive orders that embodied his campaign promises.
The administration soon discovered that signing an executive order is easy compared to execution, at which stage it must answer to the U.S. Congress, the courts and the states. Report PDF
(December 2016) The election that put Donald Trump in the White House in 2017 was a shock to the vast majority of pollsters who were predicting a win for Hillary Clinton. The outcome also is a shock to the staff at Beacon Economics whose economic outlook over the last year has implicitly been based on the (incorrectly) predicted outcome of a Clinton win. Report PDF
(September 2016) The California economy, like the nation overall, slowed its pace of growth over the past year. Still, the state remains one of the fastest growing economies in the nation, according to the latest quarterly report from the California Chamber of Commerce Economic Advisory Council. Report PDF
(May 2016) The U.S. economy started off on a down note in 2016, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowing to a paltry 0.4%, even as the financial and commodity markets have continued their wild ride. The global commodity glut and the slowing world economy are the proximate drivers of the weak numbers. Report PDF
(March 2016) The California economy, like the nation overall, slowed its pace of growth over the past year. Still, the state remains one of the fastest growing economies in the nation, according to the latest quarterly report from the California Chamber of Commerce Economic Advisory Council. Report PDF
(December 2015) The state’s economic recovery has been extremely uneven, with the strongest growth coming along the coast, particularly in areas benefiting from the state’s leading position in the rapidly growing information technology and life sciences sectors, according to the latest quarterly report from the California Chamber of Commerce Economic Advisory Council. Report PDF.
(September 2015) The report indicates that while challenges such as a high cost of living, regulatory burdens and a spotty housing recovery continue to plague the state, California’s overall numbers remain strong. The unemployment rate has fallen 1.2 percentage points to 6.3%, with 482,000 net new jobs added over the last year. Tourism is another bright spot in California’s economy, as neither the stronger dollar nor slower economic growth overseas has yet to cut into the flow of international tourists into the state. Report PDF.
(June 2015) California’s economy appears to be maintaining strong momentum through the first few months of 2015, even though the state’s economy continues to be impacted by a whole host of challenges, ranging from the unending drought to the work stoppages at major port facilities earlier this year, according to the latest report from the California Chamber of Commerce Economic Advisory Council. Report PDF
(March 2015) California’s economy appears to be maintaining strong momentum through the first few months of 2015, even though the state’s economy continues to be impacted by a whole host of challenges, ranging from the unending drought to the work stoppages at major port facilities earlier this year. Although the council expects California’s economy to continue to grow, the state is not without its challenges. Growth has moderated recently, and the tremendous surge in tech-related hiring and associated construction projects is unlikely to be sustained longer term. Retailers and financial services firms are still posting only modest gains. Report PDF.
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