The People’s Voice: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Yesterday’s story on the CalChamber poll, The People’s Voice, 2024, reported that California voters have grown more anxious and pessimistic about living in California. Notably, a strong majority believe that the American Dream “once held true but does not anymore.” And by a 3 to 1 margin, voters believe it is “easier to achieve the American Dream in a different state than in California.”

This year, the People’s Voice probed voter beliefs about their future — or not — in California.

Voter Dissatisfaction

To set the stage, voters are dissatisfied with the efforts to grow jobs in the state.

By a 69% to 31% margin, voters agree that California has fostered an unfriendly business climate that discourages new high-quality jobs and opportunities. Unsurprisingly, more than 90% of voters agree that California needs to do more to attract and retain businesses in the state.

By a 71% to 12% margin, voters say that “good paying jobs are hard (versus easy) to find,” and a plurality (45%) report that “major employers or businesses have left their community in recent years to relocate to another state (that is, outside California).”

Accelerating Trend

In this environment, the trend of California voters considering a move out-of-state is accelerating.

This year — by a more than 2-to-1 margin (68%–32%) — California voters agree that “my family would have a better economic future if we left California.” In 2021, a majority (52%) disagreed with this statement.

This attitude is based on voters’ first-hand experience.

In 2024, 68% of voters reported that someone they knew personally moved out of California because of either job loss and/or cost of living concerns. In 2021, just 44% reported that experience.

California has suffered a growing exodus of residents over the past decade, with the state’s population actually declining for the past three years.

Home Ownership

When voters who owned their own homes were asked, if they were to sell their current home, 80% thought it would be somewhat or very difficult to find another home in California for the price and neighborhood they would want to live in.

By a 2-to-1 margin, voters who are not homeowners report that owning a home at some point in their lives is a high priority. Moreover, 68% of non-homeowners report that they “would consider leaving California and moving to a different state if that made homeownership more affordable.”

As discussed in yesterday’s article, in a worsening of a 10-year trend, 69% of voters with kids at home agree that “my children would have a better future if they left California,” with more than half of them agreeing strongly with this statement.

Methodology

The CalChamber poll was conducted by Bold Decision and Pierrepont Consulting & Analytics with online interviews from November 6–9, 2024, with 1,014 online interviews of California 2024 general election voters. The margin of error for this study is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. This is the 10th year CalChamber has published The People’s Voice survey.

Contact: Loren Kaye